Point to point inflation to come down at 8% by June

The point-to-point inflation will fall below the 8% mark by June, said Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed.

“The fight against inflation, however, may result in a slightly lower GDP growth rate compared to previous years,” he said while presenting the proposed budget for the FY26 via a pre-recorded telecast speech.

According to the provisional estimates, GDP growth in FY2024-25 could be 3.97 percent. 

“However, we expect the final estimate to be higher. We also expect that the growth rate will rise to 6.5 percent in the medium term,” he added.

He stressed the importance of a stable exchange rate of the taka against foreign currencies to maintain the downward trend of inflation. 

He also stressed that achieving such stability requires maintaining adequate foreign currency reserves.

Regarding inflation control measures, the adviser noted that the government has consistently implemented a contractionary monetary policy in recent months. 

“As a result, the policy interest rate has been raised by 150 basis points, now standing at 10%. Alongside this, a contractionary fiscal policy has also been adopted to support the monetary measures, including significant reductions in non-essential public spending. These efforts have already begun to show positive results,” he said.

According to the Finance Adviser, point-to-point inflation has dropped from 10.89% in December 2024 to 9.17% in April 2025. 

“Encouragingly, the market for essential goods during this year's Ramadan was one of the most stable in recent memory. If this trend continues, inflation is expected to fall to the 8% range within June,” he added.