All factors lead to comfortable AL wins

All relevant factors point to Atiqul Islam and Sheikh Fazle Noor Taposh heading for comfortable wins in tomorrow’s mayoral elections in Dhaka North and South. I’m not just speaking as a supporter of Awami League but also as an analyst of political trends in Bangladesh. Some, but not all, such factors include: 

First, the relative popularity of the candidates as shown by the recent opinion polls. The polls revealed comfortable leads for both Atiqul Islam (50.7%) and Sheikh Taposh (54.3%) over their respective opponents Tabith Awal (17.4%) and Ishraque Hossain (18.7%). 

Second, the general popularity of the Sheikh Hasina-led Government will act as an added advantage for party nominees Atiq and Taposh. In the latest opinion poll by Washington-based International Republican Institute (IRI), 83% Bangladeshis expressed their approval for the job being done by the current government. The same polls also revealed that only 36% Bangladeshis approve of the job the opposition is doing. Thus, conversely, both Tabith and Ishraque being nominees of BNP, will have the added disadvantage of caryying the burden of the general unpopularity of the opposition.

Third, as our consultations with various voter groups have confirmed, there is a perception among the voters that only mayors from the ruling party will be able to deliver on large projects and undertakings as promised in their manifestos. They are of the opinion, as is the case with other countries like the USA, that having local representatives from parties other than the government may result in deadlocks, lack of coordination and a general lack of support. While this is not an ideal situation, that is how voters perceive the realities on the ground. 

Fourth, both Atiq and Taposh ran vigorous campaigns with better and targeted outreach than their opponents Tabith and Ishraque. Both AL candidates modified their messages which resonated with voters in their respective regions, for instance Atiq’s emphasis on digitisation for ‘Smart Dhaka’ in North and Taposh’s focus on heritage, tourism and rejuvenation of old Dhaka in South were clearer messages than what were offered by Tabith and Ishraque in their ‘wish-lists’.   

Finally, the qualifications and fitness for the job angle worked in favour of the Awami League candidates. Atiqul Islam, the self made RMG entrepreneur success story and business leader versus the son of Abdul Awal Mintoo in North; and Sheikh Taposh, the successful lawyer turned three-times parliamentarian versus the son of Sadeque Hossain Khoka in South - that is how the comparisons have been made to the detriment of the BNP nominees. Tabith’s family being implicated in the Panama Papers scandal and the news of him failing to disclose substantial wealth in Singapore also put a dent on his credibility and integrity.

While all factors point to comfortable wins for Awami League candidates in Dhaka North and South, that is not a given, however. For that, voters need to go out and vote and make the likely results a reality. So, tomorrow, go out and vote for Nouka. Vote for Atiqul Islam and vote for Sheikh Taposh. And together, we can make Dhaka a more liveable, vibrant, smart, healthy and modern city.

The writer is a special  assistant to Honourable Prime Minister 

Disclaimer : Views expressed in this opinion are his own and does not necessarily reflect that of the Prime Minister’s Office