Bangladesh is factor in Rohingya repatriation

Bangladesh’s foreign policy seems too friendly and does not allow complaining even if a wrong has been done to it. It is Gambia not Bangladesh went to ICJ for Rohingyas. The ICJ hearing was from December 10-12, 2019 at The Hague. 

Gambia, a small country in West Africa (with a population of 2.7 million and per capita income of $ 707), took Myanmar to ICJ, sadly during the same time frame (December 11-14, 2019) Bangladesh Army Chief was visiting Myanmar (this was a very puzzling news to the Gambian legal team at ICJ), possibly to exhibit that Bangladesh has no issue with Myanmar and Rohingya issue is Myanmar’s internal issue. 

Even Bangladesh does not officially address the Rohingya people as Rohingya’. It is termed as FDMN (Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals) because Myanmar does not want them to be called Rohingya. 

Does Bangladesh have an independent policy/strategy about Rohingya Repatriation? If there is any that has not been surfaced in the public domain? Dhaka always relied on regional powers - India and China, and the international community. They have their agendas and national interests that may not tally with ours. 

The international community would convey sympathy, provide humanitarian assistance and express concerns but risking their geopolitical interest is altogether a different matter. We cannot blame them for their apathy to Rohingya Repatriation if we do not have our own strategy. Rohingya Repatriation was not a national priority in Bangladesh. It is not our ‘Centre of Gravity’. Hasina regime’s number one priority, especially after the 2014 election, was to establish its legitimacy by employing Bangladesh missions abroad, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and government machinery, in such an environment regime’s interest is greater than country’s interest. 

The Rohingya issue was not an existential threat to the regime. Dhaka did not negotiate with Arakan Army (AA) even after the coup of 2021 in Myanmar. AA Chief, Major General Twan Mrat Naing in 2022 in an interview with a Bangladeshi-born British journalist expressed his full sympathy for Rohingyas and was desirous to take back them in Rakhine as part and parcel of Myanmar in general and Rakhine in particular. 

In exchange, he expected sympathy for Rakhine people and humanitarian support from Bangladesh. Of course, Dhaka did not pay attention. Now, he terms Rohingyas as Bengali Muslims and repatriation is not on his agenda. 

Interestingly, recently some of the Rakhine journalists and academics are calling Rohingyas as Chittagonians. A dominant group in Rakhine polity would like to discuss all kinds of harmonious development agendas with Bangladesh except Rohingya repatriation issue. Seems opportunities slipped away. The Junta is no more a legitimate government of Myanmar nor does it control the majority administration of Myanmar. Even Junta is sharing political and economic power through agreements with Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) in Shan and Kachin States. 

Rohingyas after repatriation will go back to Rakhine and now Rakhine is mostly under the control of AA. In reality, AA runs judiciary, police, and civil administration in almost all of Rakhine except the military-occupied state capital and a few towns. However, Dhaka continues communication with Junta only. On the contrary, all the neighbors are now engaging with EAOs and their political parties besides the Junta.

This is pragmatism. Very recently, the UN has warned about the upcoming famine in Rakhine. Agriculture production has declined and combined with the near halt of trade two million out of three million people are at risk of starvation including Rohingyas still residing there. 60% population is displaced and more than half a million are now entirely on aid. However, TATMADAW’s ‘Four Cut Strategy’ in Rakhine, restriction on food, medicine, and intra, interstate movement, has turned this humanitarian issue into a crisis.

The recent violence has taken a new turn in Rakhine. So long since the military has been accused of persecution of Rohingyas, now, AA has been accused of targeting Rohingyas. This triggered a new wave of refugees fleeing into Bangladesh. TATMADAW persecution forced Rohingya exodus in bulk but they did not deny the allegation of expulsion. On the other hand, now AA causing atrocities against Rohingyas and expulsion is taking place in small groups however, AA denying their involvement.

National Unity Government’s (NUG) position now is taking back Rohingyas with equality and dignity and absorbing them in their society once the situation is stable and democracy is restored in Myanmar. NUG also expressed its intention to bring perpetrators of Rohingya human rights violations and genocide to justice. However, Dhaka is not meaningfully engaging NUG as well.

In a seminar in Dhaka last year, the Foreign Minister of NUG joined online and expressed her frustration of not being able to engage Dhaka. Possibly at present, Interim Government with so much of things going around will overlook engagement with NUG thereby missing the opportunity again. Likely Rohingya Repatriation is not on their radar at the moment, neither it’s their priority, inevitably nor in the interest of Rakhine/AA. This only highlights the grim reality of Rohingya Repatriation.

Nonetheless, we need to remember if the pains and sorrows of neighbors do not touch us, in their happiness and joy they are also not going to remember us and our concerns as well.

Writer: Lt Gen (Retd) Dr. Mohammad Mahfuzur Rahman: Former Principle Staff Officer, Armed Forces Division. He is available: mahfuzba2172@gmail.com