Smart diplomacy is the way out of the energy crisis

The fuel crisis is affecting the whole country. People are waiting for hours in long queues to buy fuel for their vehicles. Even then, in most cases, they do not get the amount they need. Often, after standing in line for a long time, they find that the petrol station has run out of fuel. Such incidents are now very common. Many industries and fertiliser factories have shut down completely because of the shortage of oil and gas. The media is also reporting that fishing in the sea has been badly disrupted.

This fuel crisis became visible in the country just five days after the US-Israeli aggression and mass killings in Iran began. However, the government is not accepting that there is any crisis. On March 24, the Energy Minister said there was no shortage of fuel in the country. Yet, the very next day, on  March 25, the daily newspaper Kaler Kantho reported, quoting the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation, that the country had diesel stocks for only 14 days, octane for nine days, and petrol for 11 days. 

In normal times, we consider 20 to 25 days of storage to be safe. But this is not a normal time. The main source of our fuel oil is linked to the war in West Asia. Even the normal supply is now falling short.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, normal activities around the world stopped for months. Production and distribution of oil and gas also came to a halt. Even in those difficult times, Bangladesh did not face any energy crisis. Now the whole world is working normally. 

It is not true that nothing is moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Ships carrying oil and gas from Iran’s friendly countries, including India and China, are still passing through it. Bangladesh is also among those receiving supplies. Besides, only 20 percent of the world’s total oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The remaining 80 percent comes from other parts of the world.

India is now buying oil from Russia without any restrictions. India can also buy oil for Bangladesh from Russia after meeting its own needs. It is possible to bring not just thousands but millions of tonnes of oil from them through proper agreements and communication. 

A large part of our oil comes from Saudi Arabia. Saudi oil is flowing freely through the Red Sea to European countries. There should be no major difficulty for us to bring oil from there, except that the transportation cost would be a little higher. 

After the crisis began, Europe has been buying more oil and gas from America. We can also buy oil from Europe even if the price is slightly higher.

We used to depend heavily on Qatar for gas. Qatar is the third largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the world. America is first and Australia is second. Because of the problems in the Strait of Hormuz, it has become difficult to bring gas directly from Qatar. However, Qatar has a gas pipeline through Oman. We should find out if we can get gas from there. 

We also need to ask what happened to plans for bringing gas from America. We can sign a new agreement with Australia to bring gas. In addition, countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Oman and Brunei sell large amounts of gas. We already import refined oil from Malaysia and Indonesia, and they can also help us with gas supplies.

No one can say for sure how the war in West Asia will develop. On one side, President Donald Trump is talking about secret talks with Iran to end the war. On the other side, he is sending warships and troops to the Persian Gulf. Iran says it wants to fight to the end. Israel also wants to continue the war. Apart from bombing Iran, Israel is occupying parts of southern Lebanon. It has already taken control of large areas of Syria. There is little left of Palestine except the West Bank. After that, Israel may attack Jordan on some excuse. If Israel can take control of Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria, it will gain the ancient region known as the Levant, which it has claimed for many years. The longer the war continues, the more land Israel will have the chance to seize. That is why; it wants the war to go on.

David Willis, BBC North America correspondent, said it is very difficult to know the real stage of any talks between the United States and Iran to end the war. In this situation, we cannot predict when the war will end. Whether the war in West Asia is short or long, Bangladesh needs to ensure its energy security. There is no other option.

This is not the time to worry about whether fuel prices are high or low. If we cannot bring the fuel supply back to normal, the country will face a much bigger crisis. It could even come to a standstill. The cost of expensive oil is far lower than the cost of paralysing the entire country. We must now understand the dangers that may come if the war does not end soon. We need to make plans and take steps right now to deal with such a situation.

The present crisis in the country should not have happened. With a little foresight, better communication and greater skill in international affairs, it could have been avoided in time. Even now, it is not too late. We must not waste any more time.

Writer: Sabbir Ahmed, Chartered Accountant and Columnist

The article was originally published in the online edition of The Daily Samakal and has been rewritten for the English version by Mohammed Humayun Kabir, Senior Sub-Editor.