Significance and consequences of the change in West Bengal

After Bihar and Odisha, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has also won in Bengal. The ancient regions of Bengal and Kalinga have now come practically under the control of the saffron camp. When the results of the elections held in West Bengal on April 23 and April 29 were announced on Monday, it is seen that the opposition BJP had crossed 200 seats in the 294-seat assembly, while the ruling Trinamool Congress had fallen below 100.

It would not be wrong to describe the way the BJP rose from 77 seats in the last assembly elections to more than 200 in one go as a tsunami. In more than 80 seats, 30 percent Muslim votes are decisive. Clearly, just as Muslims have so far voted for Mamata in large numbers, this time Hindus have also voted heavily for the BJP.

What is the significance of this victory for the BJP? Like all other states in India, West Bengal is predominantly Hindu but has a largely different religious tradition. Its political and cultural history is also rich. For half a century, it has been observed that the tide of the ruling party in Delhi has stopped at the borders of this state. Even without being in power at the Centre, the Left Front and the Trinamool Congress have remained in power for 34 and 15 years respectively. Like the Congress, the BJP has not been able to make much headway in the West Bengal assembly. There is also a strong anti-Hindi sentiment in West Bengal on the question of language. Therefore, the appeal of the Hindi-supremacist BJP has not been strong here for a long time. It is in this context that Mamata, like the Left Front under Jyoti Basu and Buddhadeb Bhattacharya, has remained in power in West Bengal for a long period.

It can be said that the BJP’s dominance in the Hindi-speaking region became complete with its victory in Bihar. Its success in the non-Hindi-speaking region of eastern India, which began with Odisha, has now become total with the victory in West Bengal.

On one hand, the BJP’s victory in West Bengal was inevitable. West Bengal, which was once at the top among Indian states, especially in terms of GDP and per capita income, has now fallen almost to the bottom. Because of its continuous conflict with the Centre, the state has been deprived of fair shares of financial projects and grants from the central government for many decades. It has also failed to attract investment on its own. As a result, the employment crisis has recently reached its peak. The shortage of civic amenities, including education and health services, is also clearly visible. Corruption and irregularities are widespread, along with a serious deterioration in law and order. 

However, the biggest factor behind the BJP's victory seems to be the Left Front and Mamata's tactic of using the Muslim vote bank to suppress other crises. It is believed that, although it has weakened, a secular atmosphere has always existed, especially among the middle class, because of the influence of the Bengali Renaissance of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. As a result, there was diversity in their voting patterns as well. That is why, despite many failures, the Left Front and Mamata have ruled West Bengal for about fifty years in succession. According to analysts, the last few terms of the Left Front and Mamata’s last two terms were saved particularly because of the Muslim vote bank.

It is worth mentioning that in 1977, both Hindus and Muslims together removed the Congress and brought the Left Front to power. The same thing happened when Mamata came to power in 2011. But this time, when general public opinion turned against the Trinamool, the picture in Muslim-dominated areas was different. They did not have a strong secular party as an alternative to the Trinamool, as had been the case during the previous two changes of power. This situation forced ordinary Hindus, who were determined to remove the Trinamool, to vote together.

It is true that the BJP’s anti-Muslim rhetoric has influenced ordinary Hindus to some extent. Therefore, it cannot be said that the Bengali Hindus there have become communal. The matter will become clearer after looking at their behaviour following at least one term of BJP rule. This issue will also depend on the future role of the Left Front and particularly the Congress. After losing the election, many are doubtful about how long the Trinamool Congress will survive the coming tactics and attacks of the BJP. Therefore, the Left Front and the Congress may emerge as the face of secular power.

It is certain that the BJP’s victory will not free the politics and society of West Bengal from instability. For example, during its election campaign the BJP described Muslims who were excluded from the voter list as Bangladeshis and said that these “infiltrators” would be removed from “Bengal soil”. This may also be a cause for concern for Bangladesh. The central BJP government and its leaders have already highlighted the border between West Bengal and Bangladesh as a priority issue for national security. Other problems between the two countries, including the sharing of water from trans-border rivers, cannot be expected to be resolved at this time. Therefore, it is important for the government and people of Bangladesh to monitor the developments in West Bengal carefully.

Writer: Saifur Rahman Tapan is an Assistant Editor, Daily Samakal

The article was originally published in the print and online editions of The Daily Samakal and has been rewritten for the English version by Mohammed Humayun Kabir, Assistant News Editor.