Climate, Covid, SDG and Power

While discussing energy issues relating to demand, supply, price, fuel-mix etc, World Energy Council (WEC) mentioned about right balance of Jazz and Symphony. It needs focus on energy equity, individual access and affordability as it addresses in Jazz. The Jazz is strong but flexible rhythmic structure with solo and assemble improvisation on basic tunes and chord patterns. It led by one and followed by others. On the other hand, symphonies a complex orchestra of 80 or more members having specific individual role as energy needs to look into Symphony characteristics; focus on environmental sustainability through internally coordinated policy and practice. All predictions by WEC are done in Jazz or Symphony as we do higher and lower case. 

Population of the globe is predicted to be 8.7-9.4 billion from present 7.8 billion; increase is predicted 26-36% by 2050. During this time, GDP will increase about 100-153%, car use will be increased 57-98% from the present level. World Energy Council also mentioned that it is a time of unprecedented uncertainty for the energy sector. Energy demand will continue to increase the pressure and challenges to develop and transform the energy system is immense. 

They told this specially at the backdrop of pandemic COVID-19. World Energy Council also identified energy trilemma balance between environment sustainability, energy security and energy equity. Very recently, issues of energy poverty and energy justice are identified as prime area for discussing at the global energy arena. They also identified 10 key messages targeting energy of 2050 for the energy sector people: complexity will increase by 2050, energy-mix will continue to be mainly fossil based by 2050 (59-77%, in 2010 it was 79%), Carbon pricing is very important, challenging renewable energy, balancing the trilemma, carbon capture and underground carbon storage, regional integration etc. 

In Bangladesh in 2009 we had only 47% of electricity coverage having about 5000 megawatt generation capacity, about 24% less supply than the demand, system loss was 14.33%, load shedding was widespread average six to eight hours, under frequency of electricity was very common which caused frequent electronic gadget disorder, voltage level and moreover distribution was very unsatisfactory, which made an ultimate outburst of mass movement all over the country including Kansat power movement in Chapai Nowabgonj district resulted in 13 death of farmers those who came with the demand of electricity supply. At the backdrop of huge shortage of electricity, the government of Sheikh Hasina came into power in 2009 and from day one, started war against load shed and took up huge number of activities for combating the power crisis. 

During this period from 2009 to 2020 about 134 new power plants having about 17,000-megawatt generation capacity were established, along with them there was more 13 rental power plants which has been retired very recently. It shows that on an average one new power plant were set up in each month. Every year on average 1600-megawatt electricity was added to the generation capacity and now, the generation capacity is 24,421 megawatts. In 2008-09, total energy generation was 26,533ghw which stands at 71,419ghw last year. At present per unit generation cost is about 5.94 Taka. In 2007 on 17th September, the highest generation was 4296 megawatt and this year on 3 April it was more than triple which is 13,018 megawatt. 

Bangladesh had a transmission line of about 8000 circuit kilometer (ckm) in 2008. It increased to 12,494 circuit kilometers in 2020 having a total 184 transmission sub-station with 48,000mva supply capacity which was less than 1/3 that is 15,870mva in 2008. In 2008 per capita consumption of electricity was only 220 kilowatt hour which is more than double 512 kilowatt hour in 2021. In 2009 distribution line was 260,000 kilometer having a capacity of 10,800mva. After a huge reform in power sector in 2021 length of distribution line became more than double which is 601,700 kilometers with a capacity of 26,700 MVA and within this span of time, the number of consumers became quadrupled from 10.1 million to 39.5 million and now cover almost 100% of our population.  

Another important area of power sector is fuel mix. In 2021, Bangladesh generates electricity on an average 51% from gas, 34% from HFO and diesel, 8% from coal and 5.6% import from India. In 2009 there was a very weak fuel mix which is about 84% from gas with very minor participation of liquid fuel, coal and hydro. For the better energy mix balance on different mode of energy is essential. Bangladesh has a commitment to 10% generation from renewables by 2020 which is very difficult to achieve for Bangladesh, a land hungry country. In our country hydro potential is no more, possibility of wind so far very minimum, no geothermal, there is scope for solar energy but it needs huge land area; one hector (about 2.5 acre) per megawatt of electricity. Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing with energy pricing. Energy use per unit of GDP will decrease by 50% in 2050, half of the primary energy will be required in 2050 to produce same electricity. 

To ensure energy security in Bangladesh a bilateral relationship developed with India, now giving a scope of importing 1160 megawatt of electricity and in very near future Indian Company Adani will produce about 1500 megawatt in Jharkhand and export the whole electricity directly to Bangladesh. Government is working to develop a generation plan on hydro-electricity with Nepal and Bhutan; two trilateral relationships Bangladesh-India-Nepal and Bangladesh-India -Bhutan is under process.  

SDG 7 calls for ‘affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all’ by 2030; three core targets are: Ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services. Fulfilling 1.5 degree of Pre industrial level of temperature rise mostly depend on fuel for electricity, carbon emission from fossil fuel specially coal and liquid fuel may worsen the situation. Bangladesh in Power Sector Master Plan (PSMP) 2010 planned to have 50% power from coal by 2030 and later on in PSMP 2016 it reduced coal participation to 35% and now also planning to lower further. As it covered all its people with energy access, now we need to ensure the quality and reliability.  

We all know electricity generation is a capital intensive also technology dependent sector and globally from 2010-2050 it is predicted that 19-26 trillion US dollar will be required in this sector; out of this amount 46-70% would be spent for renewable energy. COVID brought investment shock which is very prominent in power sector. Though we know world economy was recovering by the end 2020, China predicts 8% growth this year and hopefully in spite of COVID, financing in power sector would draw the attention of the global players. During Covid in May 2021 China achieved 27.9% export growth.

This is one of the strengths of Bangladesh that from 2009 till date honorable Prime Minister is the power minister. She was also power minister during her of 1996 to 2001 tenure when she initiated participation of private sector in power generation and this gives immense strength to succeed in this sector. Now participation of private sector in power generation is about 43%.

Very recently, we have seen the innovative idea of “Alor feriwala”; an initiative of Bangladesh Rural Electrification Board, started this initiative moving door to door and providing electricity connection on the spot. Earlier there was a time-consuming system of getting electricity connection, created scope for corruption and it withered away by introducing the “Alor feriwala”. So many good practices have been done in power sector.

The annual performance agreement which is being implemented now in the whole of the government was started in power sector in 2010-11 also performance-based incentive. Training for the Human Resource Development and working in team got high importance in power sector. The primary energy supply is a big challenge along with the changing technology, financing, local coal extraction, import of coal and other primary energy, cyber security, transportation of fuel and heavy equipment, adjustment with nuclear power, subsidy, land for renewable energy, underground cable with changes of power scenario, seasonal variation, energy auditing, and hydrogen technology as fuel all these are upcoming challenge for the power sector. 

The future of power is green-only energy. So, executing model of human and economic development, climate neutral, circular economy, safe and regenerative with all these the globe will require more energy at least in the medium term. In the coming days economic trend, cyber security risk, carbon abatement, energy supply situation, investment, environment all these issues are very crucial for the energy managers. Also support mechanism, affordability, renewables, energy efficiency and demographic pattern are very important for the efficient energy supply all over the globe. More international cooperation, internationally harmonized policy and trust in market mechanism is essential to address the trilemma; the trilemma of environmental sustainability, energy security and energy equity. From 1990 to 2010 primary energy demand increased by approximately 45%. Considering increased demand and 50% energy efficiency it is estimated that from 2010 to 2050 demand of primary energy in power sector will further increase by 27-61%. It is predicted that towards 2050 South, Central and East Asia are the center of future growth in particular China and India also Bangladesh.

In 2050, primary energy mix will continue to be fossil fuel-dominated may reduce the share of fossil fuels from 79% in 2010 to 59 -77% in 2050. Asia showed better preparedness to combat Corona as a result of its handling other pandemics. Economic trend, carbon abatement, digitization, new market mechanism, cyber security, energy storages innovation, energy supply, innovative transportation, big data, renewable energy, energy efficiency all these important issues need to be addressed. Hydrogen as a fuel is becoming a reality and the rich countries are conducting research on this to reduce carbon intensity though the developing country showing less interest here. Bangladesh should not be left behind in the journey of using hydrogen as fuel in power sector. 

Will there be investment boom after covid as it happened after economic recession 2007-08? This is the difficult question. At the back drop of rejoining of USA with Paris Agreement on climate change will there be a major shift of fuel mix, more dependence on renewables all over the globe specially the developed countries? Will there be a return to mass transportation? What's about the aviation travel? Almost all the meetings are being done in digital platform. What's about electric vehicle? How about working from home? What will be the scenario of the future cities? All these important issues are coming up and we believe post pandemic recovery will help energy transition for a more inclusive energy future.