Coming COP26 and Australia

On the issue of climate change and response to it current Australian government led by Scott Morrison is between the proverbial rock and the hard place.  On the one side are rocks; Morrisons climate denying National party partners using the condition of the downtrodden state of rural Australia and reminding him how the mining towns would be decimated if an attack comes against coal mining and export as part of any commitment to climate mitigation.  “Hard place” is the rest of the world, in particular EU’s  continuous reminding even hectoring Australia of dire consequences if Australia did not sign up for net-zero by 2050.

To exemplify this conundrum Australian trade minister, Dan Tehan, recently urged his government to back net zero emissions by 2050, declaring “the world is moving and Australia must be at the table to fend off “protectionist forces”.

At the moment the Morrison government is attempting to reach a deal with their National party partners led by Barnaby Joyce over climate policy at the eleventh hour leading to the Glasgow climate summit.  Minister Tehan said to British Newspaper the Guardian that he had “spoken with colleagues about the risks Australia faced if it failed to spell out a clear plan to net zero.

Describing his experience in Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, the US or Europe, he said that the world is moving to decarbonise, and Australia runs the risk of being left behind.

In megaphone diplomacy on climate France, talking in the shadow of the usurped sub-marine deal urged Scott Morrison on climate saying there was “No room for Complacency “

Australia must figure out how to do that mindful of its own political reality and while protecting her key industries such as coal and by showing a pathway of growing her economy after Covid.

A particular sticking point for the Australian government is the carbon border tarrifs, which have been proposed by the European governments.  Australia realises that to remain relevant in the future international discourses there is no option but to sign up for Net-Zero by 2050.  There is always an option, though increasingly difficult, would be to join the table and influence the discourse in Australia’s favour.

Living in Australian Capital city Canberra I am constantly exposed to this paradox that exists in Australia.  In the one hand Australia is a leading player in regenerative agriculture, environment movements with strong historical roots but Australia is also a country strongly influenced by the mining and fossil fuel lobby. 

While climate change denial remains a strong factor in Australia the weather disaster cataclysms in the form of fire and flood in the last year has tilted the dialog in favour of climate change acceptance. To remain recalcitrant when the whole world is mobilising in favour of climate response could be catastrophic for Australia.  In the opinion of Minister Tehan “……countries will use it as a means to drive a protectionist agenda and use tariffs as potential means to try to drive change, which I think will be incredibly counterproductive and really just bring to the fore.

The rurally based National party wants the government to commit huge amounts of money, tens of billions, for the rejuvenation of rural Australia in exchange for their acceptance of the climate deal.  National Farmers Federation of Australia also worries about adverse deal coming from countries such as EU would harm Australia if Net-zero by 2050 was not signed. 

However Nationals are also flexing their political muscle.  Bridget McKenzie, a cabinet minister who leads the Nationals in the Australian Senate said recently that things could get “ugly” if the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, committed to net zero without the explicit support of the junior Coalition party.

Morrison told the US president, Joe Biden that Australia would “continue to work on our plan as to how we can continue to reduce emissions to zero well into the future”.

A particularly positive direction Australia can take in future that would help both climate change activists, Nationals in rural Australia and also make a genuine contribution to climate mitigation.  Australia could invest heavily in soil based CO2 removal.  With about 30 million Hectares of cultivable land and hundreds of millions of arid range-land outside agriculture Australia can deploy world’s largest soil carbon sequestration strategy.  It has been estimated that all the extra CO2 in the atmosphere causing the additional global warming can be taken back to the soil.  In recent years many scientific development have shown that soil based carbon removal is a viable strategy.  Deployment of such fund in rural Australia would also rejuvenate our smaller towns and create hundreds of thousands of new jobs.  It will be a win-win strategy of addressing the concerns of the National Party and also playing a vital constructive role in climate mitigation and can be a big factor in Australia’s Net-Zero commitments.  I believe the Australian Labour party will support such a step.

Writer: Climate Scientist and Activist for Climate Mitigation