Congress set for biggest tally since 2014

The Congress is on course to win over 100 Lok Sabha seats - after winning just 44 in 2014 and 52 in the 2019 election. In 2009 the party - then heading the United Progressive Alliance - won 206 seats, NDTV reports.

At 11:15 am the Congress was ahead in 99 seats and the party-led INDIA bloc - formed in June last year to stop Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP-led National Democratic Alliance from claiming a third term - was ahead in 226. 

The NDA was leading in 291 seats; the ruling party had quickly surged past the halfway mark of 272 in early leads as counting began (starting with postal ballots) on Tuesday morning.

What happened in 2014?

In 2014 the Congress - then led by Rahul Gandhi - faced the much-vaunted 'Modi wave' and slumped to a massive defeat, losing 162 seats and dropping nearly 9.3 per cent of the vote share.

The 2014 election saw the emergence of the Hindi heartland - the belt of Hindi-speaking states from Gujarat and Rajasthan in the west to Bihar and Jharkhand in the east, and down to Madhya Pradesh.

The BJP swept these states 10 years ago en route to winning 336 of the nation's 543 seats.

On its own the saffron party won 282 seats.

The NDA won 73 seats in UP, 41 in Maharashtra, 31 in Bihar, and 27 in Madhya Pradesh. It also swept Gujarat's 26, Rajasthan's 25, Delhi's seven, Himachal Pradesh's four, and Uttarakhand's five seats, and won 12 of Jharkhand's 14, 10 of Chhattisgarh's 11, and seven of Haryana's 10 seats.

The Congress won just two seats in UP - the party strongholds of Amethi and Raebareli. The party picked up only six seats across the rest of the belt, with its UPA partners contributing a further six.

What happened in 2019?

Five years on the BJP eked further ahead, winning 303 seats on its own and 353 with allies.

Once again the Hindi belt was key to beating the Congress' hopes, with the party picking up 74 in UP, 39 in Bihar, and 28 in Madhya Pradesh. It also swept Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi, winning 77 seats from these states.

Adding Chhattisgarh's nine and Jharkhand's 11, the BJP amassed 238 seats from this belt.

The Congress, this time contesting under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, slumped badly yet again, picking up just six seats on its own and seven with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.