Mamata Banerjee’s potential defeat could reshape West Bengal politics

The Bharatiya Janata Party is leading by a large margin in the West Bengal assembly elections. If Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is ultimately defeated, it will deliver a significant blow to the powerful regional party that has dominated the state for over a decade.

The 71-year-old Mamata Banerjee is an eloquent and fiery politician, popularly known as Didi and also referred to as Agnikanya. 

In 2011, under her leadership, the Trinamool Congress succeeded in defeating the 34-year-old Left Front government in West Bengal, which had been the longest-serving communist government in the world elected through democratic means. Mamata Banerjee had built much of her political capital by protesting against the acquisition of farmers’ land in West Bengal and the establishment of special economic zones.

In the current assembly election, Mamata Banerjee is facing what many observers are describing as the toughest fight of her political life. She continues to demonstrate a strong fighting spirit and maintains deep connections with leaders and workers across all units of the Trinamool Congress.

The Trinamool Congress first came to power in West Bengal in 2011, bringing an end to decades of Left Front rule. The party secured 227 out of 294 seats, including 184 seats won independently, allowing it to form the government. Since then, Mamata Banerjee has exercised dominant control over West Bengal politics.

However, this time the Trinamool Congress has encountered a much more aggressive and well-organised campaign from the BJP, transforming the contest into a fierce battle between the two parties. Several exit polls had predicted a closely contested election.

Even as the Trinamool Congress appears to be lagging behind the BJP in early trends, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has declared that neither she nor her party is ready to accept defeat. In a video message, she instructed that none of the counting agents should leave the counting centres. She claimed that the Trinamool Congress is still ahead in 70 to 100 seats whose results are not yet being properly shown. Ms Banerjee alleged that “everything is being fed lies” in the name of election results. She further commented that the Election Commission is “playing as it pleases” in coordination with central forces.

The Trinamool Congress leader added, “I have been saying this since the beginning. They (the BJP) will show us the seats they (the Trinamool) won first, and then they will show us the seats we (the Trinamool) won.” 

She predicted that the Trinamool Congress would definitely win “after sunset” and urged the party’s leaders, workers, and agents at the counting centres to “fight like tiger cubs”.

The initial results of the West Bengal assembly elections indicate that a tough contest is under way between the ruling Trinamool Congress and the opposition BJP. In the early counts from 211 out of 293 seats, the BJP is leading in 105 seats while the Trinamool Congress is leading in 103 seats.

Analysts believe that if Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress ultimately loses the election, it could mark the beginning of a major change in the political landscape of West Bengal.